Saturday, August 06, 2005

Cap it

Nothing spectacular, but after the last two nights live at Aquarium, I was hoping to nip a trend in the bud and I did.

F-Train thinks I’m full of it with the following theory (well he thinks I’m full of it on most things, but in this case he specifically highlighted it), but you be the judge:

Here is the record from the beginning of last month:

Aquarium, 1-2NL, 01Jul05, significant loss, no cap
Aquarium, 1-2NL, 09Jul05, big win, Red Sox cap
Aquarium, 1-2NL, 14Jul05, significant loss, No cap
Aquarium, 1-2NL, 15Jul05, big win, Superbowl XXXVI Pats cap
Aquarium, 1-2NL, 22Jul05, big win, Superbowl XXXVI Pats cap
Aquarium, 1-2NL, 23Jul05, decent win, Superbowl XXXVI Pats cap
Aquarium, 1-2NL, 28Jul05, rectal burn, no cap
Aquarium, 1-2NL, 29Jul05, moderate loss, no cap
Aquarium, 1-2NL, 05Aug05, moderate win, Red Sox late 70’s era cap

That’s right, 100% correlation between wearing a cap and a winning session. The statistical sample size is too small to detect a difference among caps and degrees of wins, but initial trend is leaning toward the Pats cap.

Three hypotheses:

1. Cap is hiding some tell. I am bald as a billiard cue so it’s possible. This was the Korean ATM's first thought as well.

2. Cap, particularly with the winning sports franchises I support, makes me intimidating. May work especially well against Yankee and Eagle fans.

3. Pure chance.

Anyway, no very interesting hands from last night to break down in detail but I will mention two to feed the inner autodidact.

I played one hand in a way that in retrospect I should not have but ended up with a positive result. I called with the right odds on the turn with 12 outs to a small flush or a gutter. Problem was I disregarded a potential overcaller, who I subsequently learnt was holding two higher spades than the ones in my hand. Fortunately, he folded anyway making my call correct (I am not sure if his fold was correct). As it was, my straight draw filled up so I would have been good over both hands in any event, but the result does not justify the play.

On the flip side, I raised a straddle with kings 2nd UTG to 30, was popped all-in by a short stack on the button with 7s with 102 more and had the fun time of watching a seven spike on the flop. Good news was it was only 132. I felt the tilt demons rise though, and I made a concerted effort to hold them in check, or at least to use the old super-ego to beat down the id and tighten up for a half-hour or so until I cooled off. I’ll score that a victory.

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