Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Lunatic

Dawn put up a post describing the lunacy that was my play at her tourney and cash game last Friday. I must admit to having been a wee bit more LAGgy than my normal sedate self.

[Update: math below corrected by FTrain, see him ream me in the comments too...]

Dawn mentioned a particular hand I played with Ugarte:

"The first hand I remember was Ugarte pushing all-in with a set of tens and Sox
calling him with a flush draw. He never got there and Ugarte doubled up."
I think this hand was actually quite interesting and not really at all like she described it.

What I remember happening was Ugarte opened in early position preflop I think to like 2 (0.25-0.50 blinds), so I put him on AK or a big pair (he is a very solid player). There were two callers to me, and I called behind with A4 clubs.

The flop was ten high with two clubs and a four.

Ugarte's bet out 6, which was consistent with the range I had him on except for AK. With some players, I might reduce the changes I was facing TT on the theory he wouldn't bet out a set, but I think he is a conservative enough player not to want let a flush draw sneak in cheaply behind him, particularly against 3 other players.

It folded around to me and I had the standard fold, call or raise choice. I had 14 outs twice against all hands in the range except TT and AA, 11 outs twice against AA, and 9 outs twice with 10 redraws (!) against TT. Only against the last hand am I really in trouble.

With 14 in the pot already, I can’t see a fold here, can you? I am nearly certain he is going to push the turn if I call, and if that is the case, I would be better off folding.

Pushing with the additional 20 or so I have behind seems to me the correct play—he is going to call me with that range most of the time, but perhaps not—he needs to worry about a set or even 2 pair. Of the hands in that remain in my mind in his range (AA-TT), he has 18/24 combinations of JJ-KK, 3/24 combinations of AA and 3 combinations of TT.

Let’s say he folds JJ-KK 30% of the time and never AA or TT (I think he might occasionally fold AA, but probably not against me, also he’s more likely to fold JJ than KK, but this is just a thought piece anyway), this means:

Scenario A (JJ-KK)
30% +14 = +4.20
35% +27 = +9.45
35% -20 = -7.00
TOTAL = 6.65

Scenario B (AA)
43% +27 = +11.61
57% -20 = -11.40
TOTAL = +0.19

Scenario C (TT)
29% +27 = +7.83
71% -20 = -14.20
TOTAL = -6.37

Total EV: .75(6.65) + .125(0.19) + .125(-6.4) = 4.99 + 0.02 + -0.80 = 4.21

Could I make more by raising less? I don’t think so because I think the added EV from the fold equity against JJ-KK is not compensated by the small chance Ugarte will just call twice and win with AA or TT (the only way I can save money since I’m pot committed).

Back to Dawn’s narrative:

“Well, that was the right play,” Sox says watching Ugarte stacking his chips, “I think I played that right.”

“Yes, I too think you played that just right,” Ugarte says smiling broadly.
Of course, had we been playing the cards face up, I would have folded. I’m not a lunatic.

8 Comments:

At Tue Aug 01, 02:50:00 PM 2006, Anonymous ugarte said...

Yep. That's how I remember it. Still don't agree with your analysis - but I like it.

 
At Tue Aug 01, 03:40:00 PM 2006, Blogger F-Train said...

Apart from the fact that I think you vastly overstate your fold equity if he has JJ-KK, your numbers are off.

Scenario A (JJ-KK)

30% +14 = +4.20
35% +27 = +9.45
35% -20 = -7.00

TOTAL = 6.65

Scenario B (AA)

43% +27 = +11.61
57% -20 = -11.40

TOTAL = +0.19

Scenario C (TT)

29% +27 = +7.83
71% -20 = -14.20

TOTAL = -6.37

.75(6.65) + .125(0.19) + .125(-6.4) = 4.99 + 0.02 + -0.80 = 4.21

So your total EV here is only +4.21 on your 20 bet, and that's with the very generous 30% fold equity assumption. If you cut the fold equity back to 20% (which I still think might be high), your EV dips to +3.42. For a 20 bet. This is an extremely high variance way to play.

Most people would say there are better places to get your money in if that is the range you assign to your opponent.

 
At Tue Aug 01, 03:57:00 PM 2006, Blogger SoxLover said...

Ugarte--ha ha.

FTrain,

OK, I take your correction for the numbers being off, thanks.

I'll yield to your point on the fold equity as well, you know Ugarte's game better than I.

No doubt you're right about the variance too.

But the underlying point is it's still plus EV.

For $20, variance is not a huge problem.

Are you seriously telling me you'd fold or call here?

 
At Tue Aug 01, 04:30:00 PM 2006, Anonymous ugarte said...

FTOP should mean that you don't care if the bet is $20, $2000 or a bag of stale pretzels.

And I don't think FTrain was limiting your fold equity strictly against me. Look inward, grasshopper.

 
At Tue Aug 01, 05:01:00 PM 2006, Blogger SoxLover said...

Fine, assume zero fold equity you calling station:

Scenario A (JJ-KK)
50% +27 = +14.5
50% -20 = -10.00
TOTAL = 4.5

Scenario B (AA)
43% +27 = +11.61
57% -20 = -11.40

TOTAL = +0.19
Scenario C (TT)
29% +27 = +7.83
71% -20 = -14.20
TOTAL = -6.37

.75(4.5) + .125(0.19) + .125(-6.4) = 3.38 + 0.02 + -0.80 = 3.6

It's still clearly plus EV to push versus folding.

Versus calling? Maybe a mistake, particularly if you really won't fold no matter what hits the turn.

As for 2000 or the pretzel, FTOP is somewhat irrelevant to the bankroll/variance question. The theory of ruination however is directly on point. Would I make this same bet for $20 10,000 times? Hell yes. Would I do it for $200,000 once? Hell no.

EV of each is of course exactly the same.

 
At Tue Aug 01, 07:59:00 PM 2006, Blogger Dawn Summers said...

Umm...so assuming that I understand nothing after the word "overstate your" in F-train's comment...do I need to quit playing poker?

And if so, can I still keep Sox's money?

 
At Thu Aug 03, 09:19:00 AM 2006, Blogger HighOnPoker said...

Is this a poker game or a Mathletes competition? Oh, and Ugarte was at that game? Shit. Um, which one was Ugarte? I thought I met him before a year or more ago at Toni's Townehouse, but I wasn't able to pick him out of the lineup.

 
At Thu Aug 03, 10:15:00 AM 2006, Blogger Alceste said...

Ugarte didn't get there until after midnight, so no need to question your memory...

And Dawn, "fold equity" is key - although absolutely worthless when playing a low buy-in tourney on partypoker...

 

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