Weekend Wrap Up and the Worst Fold I Ever Saw

I actually posted a lot this week, perhaps buoyed by my recent good run--I hope that didn't jinx me--but mostly little blurbs.

Although this week has been quite busy (avoid deals with time zones in far continents where strange people come from), I did manage to get in a good amount of poker this week.

On Wednesday, I went with a recent nominee (by yours truly) to this list to play a few cards on Wednesday. As said crooner may have already mentioned in with his usual gentle ribbing, I was able to catch a few cards with a couple of draws. The table was teeming with fish, one enormous calling station who paid off FTrain's aces. When he called the push on the turn with the most riduclous board in the world, we both thought he'd been cracked and I thought I'd be sitting next to FUTrain (credit).

There was also a player with a pink tie who at first seemed good, but made some awful moves, mostly the expensive kind. In my first big hand, he staddled to 5 and there were two limpers and one fold (FTrain) to me. I had not played a hand for my first orbit, and made it 30 to go. I had Q♠ J♠ and made it 30 to go with just about 270 more behind. This bet may seem a little large, but with a straddle and limpers, I wanted to play this hand and generally limping here with 4 more to go is inviting someone to take the pot. As it was, it folded to pink tie, who thought for a few moments before deciding to defend with a call. The others folded and we saw a KT5 rainbow flop. Not too shabby at all. He checked to me.

I thought for a moment he was preparing a check raise, but put that aside as I hadn't played enough hands with this guy to trust a physical read. Considering the flop, I figured I had a pretty good chance of taking it down right there unless he had a king, and even then he'd have to consider AK (which it was possible he had but unlikely). So I made it 50 into the 73 pot. He thought again for a few moments and declared raise. Minimum raise to 100, that is. The kind that makes baby jesus cry. Here's exactly why:

I was being asked to call 50 to win 222, with 8 outs. If he was only going to let me see one card, I was 4:21, a little light, but since I had position, I had implied odds if I hit as the only way he could keep me from seeing another card was to put some more chips in, which was more likely if I hit a 9 but less so if I hit an A and he did not have AK. If he was not going to protect his hand, I was going to be getting two cards and thus had approximately 8:21 to take it. Either way, his bet was horrible.

Turn was a ka-ching nine, he pushed with Kournikova (the KQ kind), and I had my chips in the pot before he did. Egads he played that poorly.

I hit one more big draw with A♥ 8♥ with an ace on board when some dude refused to raise on the flop or bet on the turn to protect his AQ and waited to value bet 50 the river when he hit his 4 straight with 3 hearts on board. He had position on me and could have checked to see the cards, but his 50 bet cost him 100 more as he felt compelled to make the crying call into the nuts. Noice!

Last hand I have been debating, a bit with FTrain but more with KATM. Pink tie raises to 12 UTG, one of two standard raises for the table (the other being 20). Super tight older guy calls, FTrain calls, then it's me. I look down and see 5♠ 7♠, one of my favorite hands (see the banner above, thanks again Kat), and come along for the ride. By the time we were done, we had a 6 way pot for about 75 (strangely enough the ancient calling station folded). Flop comes 9♠ 5♥ 3♠. Pink tie checks and super tight guy, who only has 125 or so, bets 40 into this 75 pot. It folds to me and I have some thinking to do. I am not inclined to give up this pot with that flop. After all, if you don't love that flop, you should be playing 5♠ 7♠. Question is what will maximize EV here.

I could call, but frankly I know I'm behind with a monster draw--calling is really not an option with this hand as its value requires two cards.

If he has top pair, I am actually very slightly ahead, and although if he has a set, I'm not in great shape, I'm not exactly drawing dead. So where do I eke out extra value out of this situation? I want him to fold that's how. Granted, he is not going to fold a set, but he well might fold top pair. Putting him all in for 85 more, if he has top pair, will yield me approximately 50% of 75+45+85 or a bit over 100 if he calls, and 100% of 120 if he folds (this disregards the players yet to act, but I'll get to them). A fold is clearly better for me. If he has a set, he's simply not going to fold, but an 85 bet will still yield about 65, for a loss of about 20. Question is do I think it is more likely he has a set or top pair? (This guy is very tight so I can't put him on two pair with the preflop action, and I think he would have raised with an overpair, though the odds are the same as top pair anyway.) I'm looking at him and he does not look like a guy that flopped a set.

So putting him all in is the way to go. But now how much to bet? There were 3 more people to act after me. I had all of them well covered, but a two have around 400. I wanted to maximize pressure on the guy if he had top pair, and more importantly discourage any caller with a better flush draw (yikes!). I'd also like to push out two pair if possible, and incidentally wouldn't mind picking up a call from an OESD. I decided to bet 300. This was a pretty big over bet, and some might think 200 or even 125 would have done it (KATM thought so). I was certainly opening myself up to a set on my right. I am discounting that however for two reasons. First, the guy had either the 9 or a set, I had a 5. A set behind me just isn't that likely. Second, if I bet 125 for example, if a guy with a set after me with one of the big stacks pushes, I have a very hard decision to make as I am only a 2:1 dog here being offered 275 to win 640 and can only fold if I'm sure that's what he has (interestingly, if it's set over set, my odds are almost the same but then I'm being offered 275 to win 705 since I have to believe the initial bettor will be calling). So I am pretty much pot committed anyway.

My analysis of course wasn't nearly so precise in the 30 seconds or so I took (a long time for me at the table), but after going through it here, I am much more comfortable that I made the right bet.

After I bet, it folded around to the initial bettor. He thought for a bit, folded, flipping a 9 and saying "nice set". When I showed my cards (I probably do this too much), he expressed shock that I had bet that much with three players to follow without having a set.

So after an hour, FTrain and I took our easy money and went for some Man Doo Gook in Korea town. I am not making racially charged homo-erotic statements here, this is what meat dumpling soup is called in Korean. I even called KATM to confirm, but he was too busy to talk that evening as he was still at work being served some Partner Doo Associate.

Ok, now quickly for the Worst Fold I Ever Saw:

25 to go or so in a 50+5 90 person sit and go on Poker Stars where top 9 pay. I'm very short stacked when the following hand occurred:


Blinds: t200/t400
(Ante: t25)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t7605
UTG+1: t3735
MP1: t11475
MP2: t7115
MP3: t6415
CO: t4840
Button: t5250
SB: t13260
SoxLover: t1690

Pre-flop: (9 players) SoxLover is BB with 4♦ 4♥
4 folds, MP3 raises to t800, 2 folds, SB raises to t1000, SoxLover raises all-in t1665, MP3 calls t865 (pot was t3465), SB folds

OH MY GOD--IT WAS 465 to win 3465, what happened did his cards disintegrate? He had cards to min-raise the initial bettor, but not to call 65?!!! Look at his stack? Ask yourself, how did he get it? Don't know. I do know that he busted out 3 hands later, first crippling himself doubling up someone's kings, then over-betting middle pair to go bust.

Oh, on the hand that I had 4s, I was facing T9 off and tripled up. I used the chips, as well as one enormous suckout (A2 against AK, which Hoyazo said he transferred me a screen shot of but I didn't manage to get it) to slip into the cash, busting out 8th.